To: Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs
From: James Delorey / Global Strategy Group
Peter Mitchell / P.M. Consulting, Inc.
Re: Orange County Countywide Survey Analysis
Date: May 23, 2008

 

Findings

─ Fully 79% of voters, prefer a candidate for sheriff who has no connection to Carona. This number is up from 70% in a January 2008 survey.
─ 79% of Democrats (up from 74%), 78% of Republicans (up from 68%) want a candidate with no connection to Carona.
─ Just 10% (down from 13%) want a candidate who worked closely with Carona.


─ Just 14% would rather support the candidate from Los Angeles, 11% the candidate from outside California, and 4% one who works in San Bernardino.


─ Support for an Orange County candidate is strongest among Republicans (55%). Global Strategy Group ~ Orange County Survey 2



─ About a third (29%) thinks things are off on the wrong track.

	Orange County voters want the next Sheriff to have nothing to do with Mike Carona.
	Given a choice of a candidate who works for an Orange County law enforcement agency but not the Orange County Sheriff’s Department and one who works in law enforcement in Los Angeles, San Bernardino or outside the State of California, fully 50% would rather support the candidate who currently works in Orange County.
	Half (51%) of voters would prefer a candidate with experience in Orange County to one with experience outside the Orange County Sheriff’s Department. Just 37% prefer an outside candidate.
	Among the candidates for Sheriff, Bill Hunt and Jack Anderson lead the pack, with the support of 16% and 14% of voters, respectively.
	Less than half (46%) of Orange County voters believe things in the county are headed in the right direction.

	The survey was conducted among 603 likely general election voters in Orange County, California.
	The interviews were conducted by telephone from May 15-18, 2008.
	The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is ±4.0% on the overall sample. The margin of error on sub-samples is higher.

 

Copyright 2008	May 15 - 18, 2008	603 Interviews
Orange County May Survey -- Countywide		Margin of Error: +/- 4.0%

S1. Are you at least 18 years of age or older and registered to vote at this address? [IF YES] In California, when people register to vote, they may select a party. When you registered, did you register as a Democrat, a Republican, some other party, or did you decline to state a party? [IF CHANGED] What is your party registration now?	REGISTERED-Democrat 34% REGISTERED-Republican 51% REGISTERED-Independent 5% REGISTERED-Other party 3% REGISTERED-No party/Decline to state 8% No * Don't know/Refused *
In general, would you say that things in Orange County are headed in the right direction or would you say things in Orange County are off on the wrong track?	Right direction 46% Wrong track 29% (Neither/Mixed) 15% (Don't Know/Refused) 10%

What would you say is the most important issue or problem facing Orange County today that you would like your county government to work on? [DO NOT READ LIST]

Transportation/Traffic/Roads	17%	Health care	2%
Immigration	15%	Environment/clean air/water	1%
Education/schools	12%	Public employee benefits/pensions	*
Economy/Jobs/Unemployment	7%	Jails	*
Taxes/Property taxes	4%	Political corruption	*
Gasoline prices/Oil prices	3%	Morals/Values/Family values/Energy prices	*
Sheriff / Replacing the Sheriff	3%	Iraq	*
Crime	2%	Electoral reform	*
County finances / budget	2%	Other (SPECIFY)	14%
Housing	2%	Don't know	12%
Urban Sprawl/overdevelopment	2%	Refused	*

As you may know, the Orange County Board of Supervisors is considering several candidates to replace former Sheriff Mike Carona, who resigned under criminal indictment. The person selected by the Board will serve as Sheriff until 2011. The following people have been mentioned as candidates. [READ LIST, SCRAMBLE] - Acting Orange County Sheriff Jack Anderson - Anaheim Deputy Chief of Police Craig Hunter - Former Orange County Lieutenant Bill Hunt - Los Angeles Sheriff's Department Commander Ralph W. Martin - Santa Ana Police Chief Paul Walters - Glendale Police Chief Randy Adams - Salt Lake County Undersheriff Beau Babka - San Bernardino County Undersheriff Richard Beemer - Former Los Angeles Sheriff's Department Division Chief Sandra Hutchens

Jack Anderson 10% Lean Jack Anderson 4% Craig Hunter 4% Lean Craig Hunter * Bill Hunt 14% Lean Bill Hunt 2% Ralph Martin 1% Lean Ralph Martin 1% Paul Walters 8% Lean Paul Walters 1% Randy Adams 1% Lean Randy Adams * Beau Babka 2% Lean Beau Babka 1% Richard Beemer 2% Lean Richard Beemer * Sandra Hutchens 3% Lean Sandra Hutchens * (Other , SPECIFY) 1% (Undecided) 37% (Refused) 8%

Which candidate do you think the Orange County Board of Supervisors should appoint? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK] If you had to decide, which candidate for Sheriff would you lean towards supporting? [REREAD IN SAME ORDER ONLY IF NEEDED]

JACK ANDERSON (NET) 14% CRAIG HUNTER (NET) 4% BILL HUNT(NET) 16% RALPH MARTIN (NET) 2% PAUL WALTERS (NET) 8% RANDY ADAMS (NET) 5% BEAU BABKA (NET) 3% RICHARD BEEMER (NET) 2% SANDRA HUTCHENS (NET) 4%

I'm going to ask you about some hypothetical candidates for Orange County Sheriff. After hearing each pair of descriptions, tell me which one you would be more likely to support if this were all you knew about the candidates. Here's the first pair:

A candidate who worked closely with former Sheriff Mike Carona or a candidate who has no connection to former Sheriff Mike Carona?

A candidate who has no connection to former Sheriff Mike Carona 79% A candidate who worked closely with former Sheriff Mike Carona 10% (Neither) 6% (Don't know/Refused) 5%

A candidate who worked closely with former Sheriff Mike Carona or a candidate who has no connection to former Sheriff Mike Carona?

A candidate who has no connection to former Sheriff Mike Carona 75% A candidate who worked closely with former Sheriff Mike Carona 11% (Neither) 5% (Don't know/Refused) 9%

A candidate with law enforcement experience within the Orange County Sheriff's department or a candidate with law enforcement experience outside the Orange County Sheriff's department?

A candidate with law enforcement experience within the Orange County Sheriff's department 51% A candidate with law enforcement experience outside the Orange County Sheriff's department 37% (Neither) 8% (Don't know/Refused) 4%

A candidate who currently works for an Orange County law enforcement agency but not the Orange County sheriffs department or a candidate who currently works for a law enforcement agency within Los Angeles County or a candidate who currently works for a law enforcement agency within San Bernardino County or a candidate who currently works for a law enforcement agency outside of the State of California?

A candidate who currently works for an Orange County law enforcement agency but not the Orange County sheriffs department 50% A candidate who currently works for a law enforcement agency within Los Angeles County 14% A candidate who currently works for a law enforcement agency outside of the State of California 11% A candidate who currently works for a law enforcement agency within San Bernardino County 4% (Neither) 10% (Don't know/Refused) 11%

Now I would like to ask you a few final questions for statistical purposes only.

D101. What is your age?

18-24 4% 25-34 3% 35-44 11% 45-54 22% 55-64 23% 65+ 34% (Refused) 3%

D102. What is the last grade that you completed in school?

Some grade school * Some high school 2% Graduated high school 11% Technical/Vocational 2% Some college 24% Graduate college 38% Graduate professional 21% (Refused) *

D300. And just to make sure we have a representative sample of voters, could you please tell me your race? [IF WHITE/BLACK/OTHER] Do you consider yourself a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking American?

Black/African-American 1% White/Caucasian 77% Hispanic/Latino 10% Asian-American 6% Other (SPECIFY) 3% (Refused) 3%

D400. Region [CODE FROM SAMPLE]

District 1 11% District 2 25% District 3 23% District 4 15% District 5 26%

D502. Party from sample [CODE FROM SAMPLE]

Democrat 35% Republican 55% Declined to State/Other 11%

Gender [BY OBSERVATION; DO NOT ASK]

Male 46% Female 54%

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